Ekonomi malaysia NAIK!
Rasa best juga naik ekonomi tapi kalau harga naik tu yang tak best!
Malaysia 2006 Economic Growth Will Probably Accelerate to 5.5%
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's economic growth may accelerate this year as manufacturers such as Unisem (M) Bhd. sell more semiconductors overseas and companies such as IJM Corp. benefit from government spending.
Southeast Asia's third-largest economy will probably expand 5.5 percent this year after growing 5.3 percent in 2005, according to the median forecast of 11 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The central bank is due to release its annual report, which will include 2006 growth and inflation forecasts, tomorrow at 6 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur.
Malaysia, a producer of Intel Corp. chips and Dell Inc. notebook computers, is benefiting from rising global demand for electronics goods such as Apple Computer Inc.'s iPod digital players. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government is also poised to unveil development spending initiatives for the next five years under the Ninth Malaysia Plan, which will bolster the order books of construction companies.
``Growth will continue to come from private spending, exports of electronics and commodities, and the boost from the Ninth Malaysia Plan,'' said Leslie Tang, an economist at UOB Kay Hian Research in Singapore.
Malaysia's exports, which include semiconductors, hard disks, oil and palm oil, grew 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter after a previous rise of 5.8 percent, the government said on Feb. 22. Shipments gained 11.7 percent from a year earlier in January, after an increase of 13.2 percent in December.
Semiconductors
Global semiconductor sales rose 7 percent to $19.66 billion in January from a year before as 2006 got off to a ``good start,'' the Semiconductor Industry Association said on March 2. Exports amount to more than 120 percent of gross domestic product in Malaysia, while electrical and electronics goods account for about half of export sales.
Malaysia's finance ministry forecast in September the economy would grow 5.5 percent this year.
``Growth is expected to remain respectable,'' said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Singapore's biggest lender. Exports should ``remain robust, driven by a modest electronics recovery in the early part of 2006, with oil exports improving in the latter part as the fuel subsidy cut reduces domestic fuel consumption.''
The construction industry, which has been hurt by a reduction in government projects in the last two years, will benefit from new projects to be announced in the Ninth Malaysia Plan, Chua added.
Five-Year Plan
Construction declined 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, after falling 1.4 percent in the third quarter. That was the seventh quarter of contraction.
Abdullah will unveil the five-year development plan in parliament on March 31. DBS expects the government to boost total development expenditure 16 percent to about 200 billion ringgit ($54 billion) over the five years.
``A modest revival in investment spending on the back of the Ninth Malaysian Plan will help revive construction and government spending,'' Chua said. Still, ``risks include a sharp fall in consumer spending on higher fuel prices and interest rates, and a short-lived electronics recovery.''
Bank Negara Malaysia last month raised its key interest rate, the overnight policy rate, by a quarter-point to 3.25 percent to curb inflation as it predicted the economy will gain momentum after growth slowed in the fourth quarter. The central bank in November raised its policy rate to 3 percent from 2.7 percent, the first time it had increased borrowing costs since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.
Fuel Prices
Abdullah's government raised retail gasoline and diesel prices by as much as 23 percent on Feb. 28, the fifth increase since May 2004, to trim fuel subsidies and save the government about 4.4 billion ringgit as global oil prices rose.
Lee Soo Kai, an economist at OSK Research Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur, cut his growth forecasts for Malaysia after the government raised fuel prices, saying it would lead to higher inflation and interest rates and hurt consumption. OSK cut its 2006 economic growth forecast to between 5 percent and 5.5 percent from 5.5 percent previously this month.
``I don't think consumer spending will be as strong as previous years because of the higher interest rates and fuel prices,'' said UOB's Tang. Still, ``the momentum is there for consumers to keep spending especially with the upcoming Ninth Malaysia Plan which could improve sentiment.''
Inflation may be capped by rising interest rates and a stronger ringgit, he said.
Inflation
Malaysia's inflation rate, which more than doubled to 3 percent in 2005 from 1.4 percent the previous year, may increase to 3.4 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
``Letting the ringgit appreciate would achieve better results than higher interest rates as a lot of intermediate goods are imported and I think that will happen,'' said Tang. ``The confluence of higher interest rates and an appreciating ringgit should help mitigate the impact of higher fuel prices.''
Malaysia's ringgit has risen about 2.8 percent since a seven-year peg to the U.S. dollar was scrapped on July 21, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency gained 0.2 percent to 3.6983 per dollar at 4:05 p.m. local time yesterday.
The following table gives forecasts for Malaysian economic growth and inflation for 2006:
-------------------------------------------------------
Forecaster Inflation GDP
2006 2006
-------------------------------------------------------
Median 3.4% 5.5%
Average 3.3% 5.5%
High 4.0% 6.4%
Low 2.5% 5.0%
Number of Forecasts 10 11
-------------------------------------------------------
Action Economics 3.0% 5.5%
Affin Securities 3.7% 5.6%
Capital Economics Ltd. 3.1% 5.5%
ECM Libra Securities 2.8% 6.4%
Forecast Ltd. 3.5% 5.5%
JP Morgan n/a 5.2%
OSK Securities 4.0% 5.3%
RHB Research Institute 3.8% 6.0%
Standard Chartered 2.5% 5.0%
Thomson IFR 3.5% 5.3%
UOB Kay Hian Research 3.3% 5.6%
-------------------------------------------------------
To contact the reporter on this story:
Stephanie Phang in Kuala Lumpur at at sphang@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 20, 2006 11:01 EST
Malaysia 2006 Economic Growth Will Probably Accelerate to 5.5%
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's economic growth may accelerate this year as manufacturers such as Unisem (M) Bhd. sell more semiconductors overseas and companies such as IJM Corp. benefit from government spending.
Southeast Asia's third-largest economy will probably expand 5.5 percent this year after growing 5.3 percent in 2005, according to the median forecast of 11 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The central bank is due to release its annual report, which will include 2006 growth and inflation forecasts, tomorrow at 6 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur.
Malaysia, a producer of Intel Corp. chips and Dell Inc. notebook computers, is benefiting from rising global demand for electronics goods such as Apple Computer Inc.'s iPod digital players. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government is also poised to unveil development spending initiatives for the next five years under the Ninth Malaysia Plan, which will bolster the order books of construction companies.
``Growth will continue to come from private spending, exports of electronics and commodities, and the boost from the Ninth Malaysia Plan,'' said Leslie Tang, an economist at UOB Kay Hian Research in Singapore.
Malaysia's exports, which include semiconductors, hard disks, oil and palm oil, grew 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter after a previous rise of 5.8 percent, the government said on Feb. 22. Shipments gained 11.7 percent from a year earlier in January, after an increase of 13.2 percent in December.
Semiconductors
Global semiconductor sales rose 7 percent to $19.66 billion in January from a year before as 2006 got off to a ``good start,'' the Semiconductor Industry Association said on March 2. Exports amount to more than 120 percent of gross domestic product in Malaysia, while electrical and electronics goods account for about half of export sales.
Malaysia's finance ministry forecast in September the economy would grow 5.5 percent this year.
``Growth is expected to remain respectable,'' said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Singapore's biggest lender. Exports should ``remain robust, driven by a modest electronics recovery in the early part of 2006, with oil exports improving in the latter part as the fuel subsidy cut reduces domestic fuel consumption.''
The construction industry, which has been hurt by a reduction in government projects in the last two years, will benefit from new projects to be announced in the Ninth Malaysia Plan, Chua added.
Five-Year Plan
Construction declined 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, after falling 1.4 percent in the third quarter. That was the seventh quarter of contraction.
Abdullah will unveil the five-year development plan in parliament on March 31. DBS expects the government to boost total development expenditure 16 percent to about 200 billion ringgit ($54 billion) over the five years.
``A modest revival in investment spending on the back of the Ninth Malaysian Plan will help revive construction and government spending,'' Chua said. Still, ``risks include a sharp fall in consumer spending on higher fuel prices and interest rates, and a short-lived electronics recovery.''
Bank Negara Malaysia last month raised its key interest rate, the overnight policy rate, by a quarter-point to 3.25 percent to curb inflation as it predicted the economy will gain momentum after growth slowed in the fourth quarter. The central bank in November raised its policy rate to 3 percent from 2.7 percent, the first time it had increased borrowing costs since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.
Fuel Prices
Abdullah's government raised retail gasoline and diesel prices by as much as 23 percent on Feb. 28, the fifth increase since May 2004, to trim fuel subsidies and save the government about 4.4 billion ringgit as global oil prices rose.
Lee Soo Kai, an economist at OSK Research Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur, cut his growth forecasts for Malaysia after the government raised fuel prices, saying it would lead to higher inflation and interest rates and hurt consumption. OSK cut its 2006 economic growth forecast to between 5 percent and 5.5 percent from 5.5 percent previously this month.
``I don't think consumer spending will be as strong as previous years because of the higher interest rates and fuel prices,'' said UOB's Tang. Still, ``the momentum is there for consumers to keep spending especially with the upcoming Ninth Malaysia Plan which could improve sentiment.''
Inflation may be capped by rising interest rates and a stronger ringgit, he said.
Inflation
Malaysia's inflation rate, which more than doubled to 3 percent in 2005 from 1.4 percent the previous year, may increase to 3.4 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
``Letting the ringgit appreciate would achieve better results than higher interest rates as a lot of intermediate goods are imported and I think that will happen,'' said Tang. ``The confluence of higher interest rates and an appreciating ringgit should help mitigate the impact of higher fuel prices.''
Malaysia's ringgit has risen about 2.8 percent since a seven-year peg to the U.S. dollar was scrapped on July 21, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency gained 0.2 percent to 3.6983 per dollar at 4:05 p.m. local time yesterday.
The following table gives forecasts for Malaysian economic growth and inflation for 2006:
-------------------------------------------------------
Forecaster Inflation GDP
2006 2006
-------------------------------------------------------
Median 3.4% 5.5%
Average 3.3% 5.5%
High 4.0% 6.4%
Low 2.5% 5.0%
Number of Forecasts 10 11
-------------------------------------------------------
Action Economics 3.0% 5.5%
Affin Securities 3.7% 5.6%
Capital Economics Ltd. 3.1% 5.5%
ECM Libra Securities 2.8% 6.4%
Forecast Ltd. 3.5% 5.5%
JP Morgan n/a 5.2%
OSK Securities 4.0% 5.3%
RHB Research Institute 3.8% 6.0%
Standard Chartered 2.5% 5.0%
Thomson IFR 3.5% 5.3%
UOB Kay Hian Research 3.3% 5.6%
-------------------------------------------------------
To contact the reporter on this story:
Stephanie Phang in Kuala Lumpur at at sphang@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 20, 2006 11:01 EST
posted by Blogger | 7:48 PM
|
0 comments
